From April to June, affected by the continuous high operating rate of polyester and the peak maintenance of PTA equipment, PTA inventory pressure was relieved and processing costs were repaired. In July, in the context of the continued decline in international oil prices, PX prices fell sharply, and PTA processing fees strengthened. Under the benign processing fee, the maintenance plan of each enterprise is not much. With the polyester factory negative, PTA accumulation pressure rose, the price fell to the freezing point, the processing fee fell to 200 yuan/ton below.
From the current operating rate of PTA plants, as of early August, the PTA load is 83.8%, and the operating rate is 89.9%. Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) is scheduled to carry out annual maintenance of 4.7 million tons of PTA equipment in August to September, and another 2.2 million tons of PTA equipment in East China has recently stopped unplanned for a short time, and the recovery time is to be tracked. Under the low processing cost and the negative expectation of the polyester factory peak season, the maintenance amount of PTA equipment is still likely to rise.
To sum up, macro sentiment has been repaired recently, and major asset prices have stabilized and rebounded. In terms of geopolitics, the tensions between Iran and Israel, Iran and its Middle East Allies may launch attacks in the near future, and the uncertainty facing the supply side of crude oil has increased, and oil prices have a short-term upward momentum. In addition, PTA processing profits have fallen to the freezing point, supply has room to reduce, and before the peak season, the demand side will also have a marginal improvement, you can pay attention to the PTA recent stage rebound opportunity.
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